Russia. Moscow hopes to revive relations with Afghanistan, which were frayed when it withdrew from the country in 1989 after its decades of occupation. Experts say Russia wants to play a leading role in the peace process and expand its influence in Afghanistan to counter the US and NATO presence in the region. It has hosted several meetings between Taliban delegations and Afghan representatives over the past year. The United States and the Taliban signed a peace agreement, a turning point in the 18-year war in Afghanistan. Read the full story. But the Taliban have their own leadership problems. The team negotiating the Doha Peace Agreement does not necessarily speak for the Taliban commanders on the ground, who may not be willing or unable to give up the fight and lay down their arms. This leaves the possibility of further fighting even after an agreement in Kabul. In particular, the agreement stipulates that within fourteen months of signing the agreement, the United States and coalition forces will withdraw all military personnel, including military and ”non-diplomatic civilian personnel, private security companies, instructors, consultants, and support personnel from the services.” The agreement also stipulates that U.S. armed forces in Afghanistan will be reduced to 8,600 within the first 135 days of signing the agreement and that the U.S. and the Coalition will withdraw all forces from 5 military bases, also within the first 135 days of signing the agreement. In addition, according to the agreement, the United States and coalition forces must evacuate all military bases and withdraw the remaining military personnel within nine and a half months of signing the agreement, i.e.
by mid-November 2020. This total reduction in U.S. and coalition forces depends on the Taliban sticking to their part of the deal by not allowing ”Afghan soil to be used against the security of the United States and its allies.” As the agreement contains terms on various steps the Afghan government should take, their non-participation in the talks has created an obstacle to future negotiations and angered Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and other Afghan officials. Specifically, the United States agreed in the agreement that up to 5,000 Taliban prisoners would be released by the Afghan government by March 10, 2020, as ”trust builders” between the Taliban and the Kabul government, and that the Taliban would release 1,000 prisoners to detain at the same time. However, the prisoners are being held by the Afghan government, not the United States. Since the Afghan government was not part of the agreement, it has no obligation to release Taliban prisoners it considers terrorists. As a result, the next stage of negotiations between the Taliban and the Afghan government is suspended. The agreement also stipulates that the Taliban and the Afghan government will begin ”dialogue and negotiations” on March 10, 2020, a date that has already passed. The specific themes of this ”dialogue and negotiations” are not specified, but it is believed that they include at least the role of the Taliban in a future Afghan government, the role of Islamic law in the Afghan constitution, the protection and rights of women and other minorities, and ultimately the leadership of the country. A precursor to intra-Afghan negotiations, the agreement stipulates that the United States agrees to ”cooperate with all parties concerned” on the release of combat and political prisoners. The agreement stipulated that the Afghan government would release 5,000 Taliban prisoners and the Taliban 1,000 Afghan prisoners by March 10, 2020. The release of the prisoners is described as a ”confidence-building” to fuel discussions between the Taliban and the Afghan government.
However, experts point out that the agreement between THE ADMINISTRATION OF US President Donald J. Trump and Taliban leaders is only the first step towards a lasting peace. The biggest challenge, they say, will be negotiating an agreement between the Islamic fundamentalist group and the Afghan government on the future of Afghanistan. Many Afghans, exhausted by a war that has killed thousands and forced millions to flee as refugees, fear that a US withdrawal will spark a new conflict and ultimately allow the Taliban to regain control. However, a number of catches may prevent the full implementation of the agreement. On the one hand, the Afghan government did not participate in the negotiations. Afghan President Ashraf Ghani does not support many parts of the agreement and has spoken out against taking the next steps needed to move the peace process forward. This includes the release of Taliban prisoners, which he has not done so far, although he has proposed a more modest release. Since there is no clear winner in Kabul, there is no obvious party with which the Taliban can negotiate. Therefore, intra-Afghan negotiations, which are crucial for the next step towards peace in Afghanistan, cannot take place. Although the peace process is supported by a large majority of Afghans, many issues still need to be resolved during intra-Afghan negotiations, including the division of power, the disarmament and reintegration of Taliban fighters into society, and the determination of the future of the country`s democratic institutions and constitution.
These negotiations had already had a precarious start after the agreement between the United States and the Taliban in February. The U.S. and Taliban agreed to release up to five thousand Taliban prisoners in exchange for a thousand Afghan security forces, but the Afghan government said it had not engaged in such an exchange. On February 29, 2020, the United States and the Afghan Taliban signed a peace agreement in Doha, Qatar, aimed at ending the long war in Afghanistan. The deal contains largely the same terms that were agreed in September 2019 but were sunk by President Trump. Essentially, this agreement calls for the withdrawal of U.S. and coalition forces from Afghanistan in exchange for a promise that the Taliban would not allow terrorist groups to operate on Afghan soil. However, the agreement is based on several assumptions that will make its success problematic. The agreement presupposes a functioning Afghan government in Kabul with which to negotiate. The recent Afghan presidential election did not decide who was in charge, but actually polluted the water. The failure of the presidential election took place last September, but the process of counting the votes was so complicated and controversial that the winner was not announced until February 18, 2020, nearly five months after the election. The vicious and controversial elections led to a controversial and divided government in Kabul, which led to an impasse over accountability and made the implementation of the next stage of the peace agreement problematic.
The result could be that the Taliban, with a weak or divided government in Kabul, will be in a stronger position to dictate the terms of an agreement on Afghanistan`s future that is favorable to their views. CFR`s Carla Anne Robbins joined Michele A. Flournoy and Carter A.